i added a post below to janh, number 15, to address some realistic numbers.
some have had difficulty in accepting the number of victims per pedophile i have used, i.e.
i based this on what an attorney who prosecutes such cases against molesters told me.
Sorry, the fact that some attorney uses this number in court proves nothing. You can get expert witnesses that wills say about whatever you want. Been in court, know how that works. Have heard some real nonsense from experts.
Why not ask the ones that participated in this survey how many knew a molester that had more than ten victims or even five?
thanks for the helpful comments.
as a result, this post is revised in the "analysis" portion below.
i made some math errors in a rush to post this in between work breaks.
I've been trying to get a handle on this because I'm just not buying the 300 victims per molester. I found the following very interesting document that I recommed everyone who is interested in this subject should read. http://www.missingkids.com/download/nc70.pdf
This is pretty authoritative and one thing it makes clear is that there is a vast difference between situational molesters and pedophiles. While it may be that as Waiting says, there are some 'super predator' pedophiles that have high numbers, the situational molesters do not.
I think the following quote is telling, "What is the difference between child molester and a pedophile?
Unfortunately, the two terms are often used interchangeably, which causes some confusion. The term "child molester" is ultimately very generic, and means only that an individual has committed a sexual offense against a minor. The term "pedophile" is often used to describe individuals who prefer sexual relations with children. It is more helpful to refer to "situational" and "preferential" pedophiles, a distinction made by the FBI Behavioral Science Unit. The situational offender is a person who prefers sexual relationships with an age peer, but who, when experiencing high levels of stress or for other reasons, turns to a minor for sexual contact. Incest offenders are often situational offenders. Many will offend against only one victim during their lifetimes, although others may have a series of victims during their lifespan.
On the other hand, preferential pedophiles have had few, if any, sexual relationships with age peers, and have a life long interest in children, most often males. They may literally have hundreds of victims during their life, and they typically pose a much greater risk to the community at large." http://www.svsotp.com/pedofaq.htm
To make any sense of these numbers we really have to have some idea of what kind of people we're dealing with. I suspect most are going to be "situational" offenders.
One additional comment, I have found Amazing's approach to this matter interstesting. However, I find it somewhat disconcerting that as soon as the numbers dropped he threw his 'conservatism' out the window. If the 'conservatism' had any value whatsoever then it should still apply.
thanks for the helpful comments.
as a result, this post is revised in the "analysis" portion below.
i made some math errors in a rush to post this in between work breaks.
larc that little mathematical error in A makes an enormous difference doesn't it? That's 0.2204 per congregation as opposed to 4.54, and if we make it five congregations instead of ten then it becomes 0.4408 per congregation. I suspect that may be getting near the reality. If we round it off roughly and say there are two molesters in every five congregations that sounds like a reasonable kind of number. Using my personal experience as a basis that means two out of 435 publishers which works out to 0.46%. Anyone know the percentage of molesters in the general population? Of course we don't have really have a time factor here and I'd like to see that
300 seems way too high to me as well. I think 117 victims per molester has been quoted as well. In the two cases I knew personally that certainly wasn't the case. Who would have the opportunity to molest that many people?
amazing, you've aroused my curiosity on this issue, numerically speaking that is.
i was just thinking about the number of publishers in the nine congregations i've been in versus the number of molesters.
for me it works out about 780 */- 10 publishes and two molesters.
Fred, what I believe is that out of the nine congregations I've been in, with about 780 publishers, there were two molesters. That's it. I can't vouch for what anyone else says, but then I can't say they're not telling the truth either. Some of the numbers I've seen seem a little high, and there also seems to be considerable variance in the basis for the statements. I'm also curios about what definition people are using. But then, this is not a scientific discussion is it?
i'm curious to know the empire's current stance on gun ownership.
when i was in, my stepdad told me what the society said dubs could and couldn't have as far as guns.
long guns were acceptable, provided they were traditional hunting rifles since that was the only purpose one could have a gun for.
I know quite a few Witnesses that own guns of all kinds, including hand guns and no one seems to think any thing about it. I do think it varies from congregation to congregation, I've heard that some places there are people that try to make an issue of it, and some COs are rabid on the subject. On the other hand, I know of a sister in Alaska that regularly carries a .44 magnum under her left armpit while going door to door. Lots of grizzlies in the area so it's considered OK.
The only official position is that you can't carry a firearm as something like a policeman where you might be called on to shoot someone, and you shouldn't carry one for self defense against humans. Even if you do, the only thing that happens is that you won't get any special privileges.
after reading thirdson's post on sin and mercy... the watchtower way, i was wondering how a disfellowshipped person is able to prove to the elders that they are repentant.
considering that it's not a biblical command to confess out sins to elders, nor to have to prove to them we are repentant, but rather it's a command of the wbts to it's followers, i was appauled to read the following in the flock "book of rules" written by the wbts for the elders to follow.. .
"how funeral arrangements for a disfellowshipped person .
I'll tell you one thing. If you reinstate someone after less than six months you get a nasty letter from the Service Desk asking why you disfellowshipped them in the first place.
i have been missing in action for 6.5 years.
i moved 55 miles away.
a couple of weekends ago, two elders (in suits) from my old cong.
The only reason the elders should be calling on you after six years is simply to invite you to come back. There are no instructions to go out and hunt people down.
amazing, you've aroused my curiosity on this issue, numerically speaking that is.
i was just thinking about the number of publishers in the nine congregations i've been in versus the number of molesters.
for me it works out about 780 */- 10 publishes and two molesters.
Amazing, you've aroused my curiosity on this issue, numerically speaking that is. I was just thinking about the number of publishers in the nine congregations I've been in versus the number of molesters. For me it works out about 780 */- 10 publishes and two molesters. Can you provide the approximate number of publishers in the group that produced the molesters you are listing?
i wish to conduct a legitimate poll, or at least as legitimate as it can get on this forum.
unless you are or were a jw, please do not respond or make comments.
please simply give an answer, without extended comments.
Two
Pork Chop
okay everyone, ai cannot believe what has just happened to me.
here i type away publishing my jc series showing how untrained and at times incompetant men should not be sitting in judgment of their fellow jws, when i get a summons from the cook, county office to appear for jury duty in chicago.
[don't they understand that al cappone said that there are no gangsters in chicago?
You are right on the money. The jury selection process goes for the absolutely lowest common denominator every time. The only reason anyone with any brains gets on is because they run out of challenges.
